Chris Campoli: today a UFA, tomorrow a Canuck?

Chris Campoli

The Chicago Blackhawks walked away from the $2.5M contract awarded Chris Campoli by the arbitrator. Knowing the award would be higher than to his liking, and that he'd decline the option of accepting, Chicago GM, Stan Bowman signed UFA Sami Lepisto last week to a much smaller contract, more appropriate for a bottom pairing defenseman.

It would be ironic if Campoli is now targeted by Vancouver since it was his give-away in overtime of game 7 that led to Alex Burrows' series clinching goal vs Chicago in the first round. Nevertheless, it would make sense for GM Mike Gillis to bring in Campoli if the price is right. Somewhere around $2M or less would probably make it enticing, considering VAN currently has the perennial playoff scratch, Keith Ballard at $4.2M.

Keith Ballard

Like Ballard, Campoli is a left shooting, offensively oriented, average sized blueliner that can pot 5 to 10 goals and rack up 20 to 30 points a season. At  6' 200 lbs, Campoli isn't going to overwhelm anyone on the d-zone coverage, but his smooth skating, good shot and ability to lead or join the rush would do wonders for the bottom pairing in VAN, if the price is right.

As things stand, almost anything is better than a $4M bottom pairing d-man like Ballard, when precious cap dollars are needed up front to fill out the top six, which leads me to my next recommendation. With Campoli in the fold, Gillis may actually be able kill two birds with one stone, if he is able to convert Ballard into a top six forward by trading with an equally desperate team like the New York Islanders.

Blake Comeau

Blake Comeau & Manny Malhotra

The winger I'm fairly certain would be of interest is the 6'1" 205 lbs, Blake Comeau. He's quietly grown into the role of a top six forward, having surpassed the 20 goal scoring mark this past season. He would be a fine addition to the first or second line -- for instance as Ryan Kesler's right winger.

Comeau himself is an RFA this off-season and is likely looking for a deal in the $2M range. If you add his ~$2M plus Campoli's ~$2M, that equals Ballard's current cap hit.

Now there is little doubt that despite his recent ups and downs, Ballard is a better defenseman than Campoli. He also has a resume with a track record for top four minutes (well over 20 minutes a game before arriving in Vancouver where he averaged just under 16 minutes).  However, considering his cap hit and position on the VAN depth chart:

RW Comeau (~$2M) + LD Campoli (~$2M)   >   LD Ballard  ($4.2M)

July 28/11 Update:
NYI traded winger Trent Hunter for winger Brian Rolston. For NJ it was a cap saving move to the tune of $3M. For NYI, it means another 20 goal winger to the lineup. This could also impact NYI's decision to keep Blake Comeau, who is headed to arbitration if without a deal by Aug 4.

With Rolston in that lineup, one of NYI's current top nine forwards is not going to be with the team. That may simply mean Nino Niederreiter goes back to the WHL for another year. If that's the case though, Garth Snow will be short of the cap floor by ~$1M (using 23 players, projecting Comeau at $2.25M and RFA center Josh Bailey at $1.5M). Now if Bailey goes and Nino stays, the cap floor is reached even if the return in a Bailey trade is only draft picks.

However, the likely one to go is Comeau. He's the one with the leverage to demand more money than Snow wants to pay. Plus, I'd imagine NYI management feels Bailey (3 years younger than Comeau) has another step yet to take in terms of development, considering his pedigree.

NYI Point Blank chief, Chris Botta, is saying that a source has informed him that "another Hockey Move on the way...Rolston trade said to be prelude to a bigger deal...For what it’s worth, we were also told that we’re going to like this one." I would imagine this deal gets done some time before Monday's big referendum by the county on a new arena for NYI.

July 29/11 Update:
@angus_j Jeff Angus Twitter: As per @JawandaPuck, a Ballard/Comeau swap combined with a Chris Campoli signing makes a ton of sense. #Canucks

Jeff Angus, @DobberHockey: An interesting read from a few weeks ago - what if the Canucks traded Ballard for Blake Comeau, and signed Chris Campoli? Ballard never got a fair shake last season, but a fresh start may be in order. Speculation is fun, isn't it?!

Aug 3/11 Update:
With San Jose signing recent UFA defenseman Colin White, the Sharks may be looking at getting in on the Comeau sweepstakes. They can now peddle one of their existing top five defensemen to land the top nine winger from NYI. It's the same scenario I laid out for the Canucks if they sign Campoli and trade Ballard. SJS may be looking to deal blueliner Douglas Murray, Marc-Edourd Vlasic or Jason Demers to NYI. This would fall in line with my previous speculations that the Dangerous Sharks still have More Moves to Make.


Aug 23/11 Update: 
@SunGarrioch Bruce Garrioch Twitter: Chris Campoli continues to have interest from 5 teams. He will be back at work before camp.

With that short tweet, the veteran Ottawa Sun sports columnist provided more insight on the Chris Campoli situation than all of the quotes the Toronto Star gathered this week from Campoli himself:

“I felt I had a good season (in Chicago). There were a lot of positives to take out of it...I’m a confident guy. I’m confident in my ability as a player and what I’ve accomplished in my career. But being unsigned is part of the business of being a professional hockey player. At the end of the day, as a player, you have to remember that this is a business...All you can do is control how you prepare to be a professional player...Part of being a professional is dealing with the ups and downs. Things make you stronger on and off the ice...You gain certain experiences, good or bad, and you learn from them...I’m pretty fortunate (to be a hockey player)...I’m preparing and training just as hard as I always do as if I already have a contract...The bottom line is you have to be ready to play and be in great shape to play...I have to be patient and keep working hard so wherever I end up I’ll make a good first impression...I’m 27 -- there is still a lot of time left in me as a player...I’ll be ready when the next opportunity knocks for me.”

The delay could be the result of Campoli holding out for the best deal possible, or it could be because the interested GM(s) need more time to work out a win-win deal that would have them send a current defensman to another team in exchange for help at another position, thus allowing Campoli to fill the opening on the blueline.

Shaone Morrisonn & Chris Neil

Teams that could use a blueliner immediately without necessarily having to move a body include Minnesota, and Florida, and ironically, two teams Campoli has already played for, Ottawa and the New York Islanders. However, all of those look to be non-playoff teams this season -- Campoli maybe willing to wait it out until an opening becomes available with a playoff caliber team.

Playoff teams that maybe willing to shift assets in order to sign Campoli include Vancouver and Buffalo. The Sabres would need to first trade Shaone Morrisonn and convert one of Brad Boyes or Joechen Hecht into a more reasonably paid third liner via trade. Morrisonn was a disappointment for them last season, but still has a sizable amount ($2.075M) owed to him on the remaining year of his contract. His spot would be better utilized by Campoli.

The teams that may have interest in Morrisonn could be the same four lottery teams mentioned previously (MIN, FLA, OTT & NYI), especially if they are able to shed a smaller undesirable salary in exchange.

I would still advocate that the Canucks move Keith Ballard to NYI for Blake Comeau and replace the former with the much cheaper Campoli. The exception would be if GM Mike Gillis is planning on using Ballard in a package to lure a bigger fish to Vancouver, such as Comeau's former Kelowna teammate, Shea Weber.


Update 9/23/11:
The Rangers may have been one of those original five teams inquired about Campoli that Garrioch mentioned in Aug, but as the per the agent, Rich Evans, NYR isn't one of the teams to have done so recently:

The Rangers inquired about Chris Campoli within days after the Blackhawks walked away from the 27-year-old defenseman’s $2.5 million salary arbitration award this summer, but the free-agent’s agent, Rich Evans, told The Post that they have not checked in recently on Campoli even with growing doubt regarding Marc Staal’s status and availability for the start of the season. "We had conversations earlier on, so they certainly know he’s out there," Evans said of the Rangers by phone Friday morning. "We’ve had a few teams call recently and we’ve gotten some knocks on the door, but not from the Rangers."

Blake Comeau

Chris Campoli

Previous Post: Rangers Option: Acquiring Another Impact Player
Next Post: Shea Weber Conspiracy Alert: The Kelowna Connection  

Buffalo Sabres: Christian Ehrhoff Clutch Performer?

Christian Ehrhoff isn't someone that quickly comes to mind when one thinks of playoff performers. Sometimes we have to take a closer look at the numbers to find the right answer. And that's what I'v done below.


Ehrhoff in 73 GPs in the playoffs has scored 34 Pts for a 46.575% rate of production. In 459 GPs in the regular season games, Ehrhoff scored 214 Pts which amounts to a 46.623% rate of production. The regular season vs the playoff rate of production differential is negligible then at a -0.05% (down in the playoffs).

Based on the numbers then, Ehrhoff certainly doesn't disappear during the playoffs. Conversely, the analysis also doesn't show any dramatic 'rise to the occasion' type history either. If we look at year over year, he has been pretty much up and down, some years a playoff uptick and others not so much:

Change in RS vs PO Production
+37% San Jose Sharks 2005-06
-22% San Jose Sharks 2006-07
+21% San Jose Sharks 2007-08
-55% San Jose Sharks 2008-09
+3% Vancouver Canucks 2009-10 
-11% Vancouver Canucks 2010-11 
-4% average (of the averages from the last six years)       


Perhaps whats most interesting is that he has switched teams after the season in which his playoff production rate vs regular season production rate took the biggest dip for that team. After the 2008-09, San Jose GM Doug Wilson shipped him off to Vancouver as a salary dump, and just this year, Vancouver GM Mike Gillis chose not to re-sign Ehrhoff after determining the asking pricing to be rich for his liking.

I'm guessing that they probably would have tried harder to keep him if instead Ehrhoff had better playoff production during the years those ultimate decisions were made.

					Buffalo Sabres
Left Wing	Cap	GP	P	TOI	Center	Cap	GP	P	TOI	Right Wing	Cap	GP	P	TOI
Thomas Vanek	$7.1	80	73	17:21	Derek Roy	$4.0	35	35	19:32	Jason Pominville	$5.3	73	52	18:09
Tyler Ennis	$0.9	82	49	15:40	Ville Leino	$4.5	81	53	16:00	Drew Stafford	$4.0	62	52	16:32
Nathan Gerbe	$1.4	64	31	13:19	Jochen Hecht	$3.5	67	29	17:04	Brad Boyes	$4.0	83	55	16:59
Cody McCormick	$1.2	81	20	10:57	Paul Gaustad	$2.3	81	31	15:08	Patrick Kaleta	$0.9	51	9	10:11
Matt Ellis	$0.5	14	0	10:02	Luke Adam	$0.9	19	4	11:12
Left Defense	Cap	GP	P	TOI	Right Defense	Cap	GP	P	TOI	Goal	Cap	GP	W	SV%
Jordan Leopold	$3.0	71	35	23:19	Christian Ehrhoff	$4.0	79	50	23:59	Ryan Miller	$6.3	66	34	.916
Robyn Regehr	$4.0	79	17	21:29	Tyler Myers	$1.3	80	37	22:27	Jhonas Enroth	$0.7	14	9	.907
Mike Weber	$1.0	58	17	16:53	Andrej Sekera	$2.8	76	29	21:05
S. Morrisonn	$2.1	62	5	16:10
				Pos	Not Included	Cap	GP	P	TOI
				F	Ales Kotalik	$3.0	26	6	12:22
				F	Colin Stuart	$0.5	3	0	13:09
				D	MA Gragnani	$0.6	9	3	15:17
	Salary Cap				$64,300,000					Tim Kennedy	$0.2	BUYOUT
	Cap Payroll				$65,770,357					Roster Bonuses	$0.6	Total
	Cap Space				($1,470,357)	23 players
	minus Morrisonn				$604,643	22 players

Update 8/28/11:

Look at the salary cap situation league wide, there is only one team that materially over the cap. That team is Buffalo. The Sabres will most likely have to bury a contract in the minors or Europe to have any chance of getting back under. That player would be Alex Kotalik. But even then, BUF will still be over the cap by a almost $1.5M, as shown in the cap projection table above. Thus, somebody else will have to go too.   

Shaone Morrisonn

The most logical choice is Shaone Morrisonn. He has a year left on his contract at $2.1M and looks to be the odd man out in the top six blueline rotation in BUF. Buffalo could trade Morrisonn without taking on a contract and deploy one of their existing lower paid blueliners that has a cap hit of $600K or lower, allowing them to get under the cap.

Moving Morrisonn maybe easier said than done though. He is an expensive bottom pairing defenseman even for the teams thin on the blueline such as Ottawa, Minnesota, Florida and the New York Islanders. He he can't be traded and the team prefers not to bury another contract in the minors, BUF will be forced to trade another player.

Brad Boyes

Both Brad Boyes, and Jochen Hecht project as third line forwards, and thus are overpaid by a couple million each. Trading either of them for a forward with a cap hit of about half of either of theirs would also resolve BUF's cap problems.

What team would take on Boyes or Hecht at twice the cap hit vs the player they would give up. It would be the team most desperate for a top nine center: the Phoenix Coyotes. PHX has a plethora of top nine wingers who could be used in such a deal including Lee Stempniak and Taylor Pyatt both of whom have ties to Buffalo. Stempniak is from the great Buffalo area while Pyatt played for the Sabres in years past.

My guess would be that BUF would be more interested in dealing Boyes over Hecht since the latter is more effective as a third line center. Despite Boyes' shortcomings as a center, a team like PHX is in no place to look a gift horse in the mouth. If Maloney is targeting a legitimate NHL top nine forward who can play at least 15 minutes a game, I'd wager that they'll make due with Boyes as one of their top nine centers. 

Lee Stempniak

Not to mention, Hecht was one of the Buffalo players newly acquired, and fellow German, Christian Ehrhoff, consulted before making his decision to join the Sabres. It would be a little wierd if BUF management all of a sudden traded that player two months after he could have been the difference in BUF obtaining his buddy's services.  

As for which one of Stempniak or Pyatt would be going the other way, I would say the more likely one would be Stempniak. He makes twice as much as Pyatt and thus, the PHX payroll would be less impacted. In fact, considering how much PHX spent on salaries last season, if they were to increase that amount proportionately to the increase in the league cap, PHX likely has a couple million left in the budget to spend. Hence,

Lee Stempniak $1.9M for Brad Boyes $4.0M works both for PHX and BUF from a budget and cap perspective respectively.

In the event the Sabres are able to do the above deal and somehow ship out Shaone Morrisonn, BUF would have enough cap space to add the top remaining UFA defenseman to their blueline in Chris Campoli.