JawandaPuck: Zach Parise

Showing posts with label Zach Parise. Show all posts

Monday, June 25, 2012

Zach Parise Contract: Kovalchuk Framework?

Media and speculation have the Minnesota Wild preparing to offer Zach Parise a lifetime contract, that will make him one of the highest paid players in the NHL: For instance, this one from Wild beat writer, Mike Russo:

Parise made $6 million this past season, but the Wild, the lowest-scoring team in the NHL last season and desperate for a star, is expected to offer Parise as much as $8-9 million annually.

And then, this tidbit from Charley Walters (whose not known as a regular on the Wild beat):

If need be, the Wild would be willing to offer presumptive New Jersey Devils free agent Zach Parise from Minneapolis a 13-year guaranteed contract.

Finally, Bryan Reynolds is sensing this:

If it is me, I offer a seven year deal at about $8 million per. My guess? The Wild are ready to pony up more than that...10 years, $9 million per year.

The theme here seems to be $8 to 9m contract anywhere from 10 to 13 years. The range is very relevant because it will effect the eventual cap hit, the number that fans tend to remember and is important to big market clubs as they look to squeeze in as much as possible under the salary cap.

Of course, the cap hit is the annual average value of a deal. It can also be somewhat misleading, as it is possible for Parise for all intents and purposes, to make $9m per year yet have a ~$7m cap hit. Here is an example of such a deal that could be offered to Parise to get him to the total dollars he demainds while keeping the cap hit manageable for an NHL looking to max out their roster (at some point in Minnesota's case):

$6,000,000 (age 27)
$6,000,000
$11,000,000
$11,300,000
$11,300,000
$11,600,000
$11,800,000
$10,000,000
$7,000,000
$4,000,000
$1,000,000 [throw away year]
$1,000,000 [throw away year]
$1,000,000 [throw away year] (age 40)
$93m Total
$7.154m Cap Hit

Essentially, what the above is is Ilya Kovalchuk's actual contract with the last three years lopped off. It would provide Parise with an average salary of $9m for the first 10 years. The last three years could be seen as "optional" years for him to either play through or even retire, given he'll be in his late thirties at that point. Considering his injury history and playing style, it's quite possible Parise will retire before those last years.

And then there is the strategy of front loading. That's when the contract provides the player to get much of the total dollars up front in the first few years of the contract, which is always a nice to have for anyone signing a contract. Russo believes the Wild are willing participants in such a deal:

The Wild, like others, have lots of salary-cap space. Maybe more than the Penguins, the Wild will have the ability to sweeten an offer with frontloaded money.

With some re-sorting of the above, we can make the same offer front loaded, as follows:

Craig Leipold

$11,800,000 (age 27)
$11,600,000
$11,300,000
$11,300,000
$11,000,000
$10,000,000
$7,000,000
$6,000,000
$6,000,000
$4,000,000
$1,000,000 [throw away year]
$1,000,000 [throw away year]
$1,000,000 [throw away year] (age 40)
$93m Total
$7.154m Cap Hit

Bottom line, Zach Parise can become a $90m dollar man on a lifetime contract without breaking his team's (the Wild or some other team) salary cap bank.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Ryan Suter & Zach Parise: Minnesota bound?

Could it be that both sign with the Wild?

Ryan Suter & Zach Parise

Zach Parise is from MIN and Ryan Suter is from the neighboring state of WI -- they are longtime friends.
Suter played for current MIN majority owner, Craig Leipold, who, like the Suter clan, is originally from Wisconsin.
Suter's agent is a college teammate of MIN Wild major shareholder, Phil Falcone -- they remain very good friends.
MIN acquired Tom Gilbert likely because of his ties to both Parise and Suter (giving MIN the pre-July 1 inside track on communication).

There's more...enter Ryan Suter's wife, beautiful Becky.

Becky Suter

Becky is a business school grad from University of Wisconsin. Ryan Suter met her there during his one and only year playing for the Badgers. She is originally from Minneapolis -- they were married at the golf course a stone's throw away from Zach Parise's new lakeside house in the upscale Minnetonka area).

Shea Weber

Ultimately, it may be Suter's wife responsible for Shea Weber's eventual exit from NSH.

Shea Weber seemed content to sign a multi-year deal with NSH back in 2010. But as contract talks gradually wore on, I suspect his buddy Suter at some point told him, "Hey Shea, I don't know if you really want to sign a long term deal, brah. I think there's a good chance I might be signing elsewhere my deal is up."

I think Suter wants out because he wants to do something nice for his wife, who still lists herself as working for her dad's real estate firm, which is in Minneapolis. It just so happens, Zach Parise is also from Minneapolis and he and Ryan Suter are known to be friends. I think those two have a plan that involves the Wild.

Parise bought a lake front mansion in suburban Minneapolis last summer and will be married, (likely) at the golf course across from his house, to his North Dakota fiancee, Alisha Woods, on July 21. Suter and his wife were married at that same country club a few years ago.

Zach Parise Lake Minnetonka Home

NHL team official:
"I am assuming that, at least as of right now, they [Zach Parise & Ryan Suter] are a package deal. They certainly seem to have set it up that way, themselves."

USA Olympic team official:
"My sense of what they shared when the team was together is a vision of how the game should be played, how they play their game given their talents and ability and how teams should play. I think that is what a lot of this hot stove, rumor-mill stuff is about: They know the kind of hockey they want to play, and they want to play it together, on a team they will help lead. Now, whether that desire ultimately rules the day is something that will be seen, in time."

Alisha & Zach Parise

So as Parise and Suter's plans started to form, likely over the Olympics, perhaps solidifying last season, Weber's tune started changing last spring about signing longterm in NSH. As you know, he ended up letting the negotiation go to (team elected) arbitration, ultimately picking the one year award instead of the two.

Bailey Munro

I recall hearing on Team 1040 last season, one of the local reporters saying that Weber told him about Vancouver during the Olympics, "this wouldn't be a bad place to play, eh" (or something to that effect). He's also on record as saying Vancouver is his favorite road city because "it's close to home." It's also close to home for his fiancee, Bailey Munro, who like Shea, is a graduate of Kelowna Secondary School.

So there you go, the moral of the story could very well end up being: if you want to know where players are going to sign, check with the wives.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Shea Weber on Suter & Rinne: "We're Going To Be 'Talking'"

(Note: Jack Hillen update below.)

After the arbitration award news broke, the Nashville Predators and Shea Weber had a conference call to provide their public-facing comments and answer questions. I thought the most interesting response was to Craig Custance's query when the Sporting News reporter asked how closely Shea Weber will be watching Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne and what they decide to do longterm? Weber's response:

That's what kind of makes this deal more interesting. We're all going to be up again after one year. The only difference is those two are unrestricted. I'm sure obviously we're going to be talking with each other, or what not, because all three of us are pretty close. We'll be interested in seeing what everyone's looking to do -- especially those two. If they're unrestricted, if they are going to sign longterm, if they're going to do a shorterm. I don't know. But I'm sure we'll hopefully get on the same page and we can play together for a long time.

(Click to the 16 minute mark of this video for the audio)

That makes complete sense. Weber is going to be talking to his Preds teammates, Suter & Rinne, and "hopefully get on the same page." Weber just wants to make sure he's not going to be the only man standing in NSH amongst a bunch of kids with no real shot at the ultimate prize.

Now consider this for a second: what if one of The Big Three wants to do his own thing? Heck, what if Shea wants to do his own thing.

In fact, could it not be argued that by not signing longterm with NSH this time around, Weber is already doing his own thing. It's not like there was some sort of blackout period Weber needed to avoid with regard to speaking to his buddies, Suter & Rinne, during his negotiation.

In other words, Weber has already spoken to Suter & Rinne about their longterm plans. (In fact, David Poile probably talked to both of them as well since he's been allowed to do so since July 1). Considering Weber's hesitation to sign longterm, its apparent he didn't like what he heard from either or both Suter & Rinne.

Despite it being "stressful," Weber followed through on the arbitration hearing. That's not exactly demonstrating conviction that he'll be able to work in concert with Suter & Rinne, either with regard to having each of them stay with NSH or about the team's ability to keep all three in Preds uniforms.

So lets say that was Weber's original strategy, what to do when the plan doesn't come together? Well, you need a Plan B. If Weber is openly talking to his Preds teammates, who's to say he's not talking to his good buddies that are now ex-teammates? For example, Dan Hamhuis and Cody Franson. Or those from his junior hockey days, that's right, The Kelowna Connection. Lets not be naive -- of course he's talking to them too. Information is power especially in contract negotiations.

Also, its not entirely apparent that NSH is headed in the right direction with regard to building on the momentum from their first playoff series victory this past spring. Rather than adding to the foundation, a swath of veteran experience was removed from the lineup in what seemed like one fell swoop. Below is a list of players that left Nashville sometime over the last six months in some form or fashion:

Relinquished Players

Pos

Player

TOI

Pts

Cap

Note

Joel Ward