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Friday, July 22, 2011

Shea Weber Conspiracy Alert: "The Kelowna Connection"


Blake & Lacey Comeau
So former Rocket Blake Comeau was married in his adopted hometown yesterday -- the place he played for four years as a WHL junior: Kelowna. In full attendance were many of his fellow Rockets alumni. It is after all, Kelowna Rocket Alumni Week going on this very hebdomad. Several of these alums also have serious matters on their minds though.

Including Comeau, three former Kelowna Rockets teammates intend or intended to go to contract arbitration. Blueliner Josh Gorges
just re-signed on a one-year deal with Montreal. And rumor has it that fellow defenseman, Shea Weber is also looking for a short term deal. Now I'm really curioius what happens with Comeau?

July 27, 2011 Update:
Katie Strang NYI Reporter: When asked about the likelihood of signing the 25-year-old winger before August 4, general manager Garth Snow said "it looks like it will go to arbitration...We've had some discussions that have been positive, but if a deal isn't struck, arbitration is a tool we can use to come to a resolution." Snow said during a rally for a new (NYI) Coliseum Wednesday.

Aug 2, 2011 Update:
@KatieStrangNYI Katie Strang: #Isles avoid arbitration with Blake Comeau; 25-year-old winger agrees to terms on one-year deal worth $2.5 million

@DarrenDreger Darren Dreger: Shea Weber asked for $8.5 and Preds submitted $4.75 million. Arbitrator has 48 hrs to decide on 1 year term.

@FriedgeHNIC Elliotte Friedman: But, as one agent said, "This is the strategy for a player (Weber) who wants to leave."


Original article continued:

Blake Comeau, Shea Weber & friends
Pictured to the right are Comeau and Weber hanging together at the Kelowna Wal-mart supporting good causes in their community this off-season. 

When Comeau was asked about his Stanley Cup preferences before the final game, here's what he said: "We play against Boston out in the East and obviously I’m from British Columbia, that’s where I live in the summer so it would be nice for the province of British Columbia to maybe bring home a Stanley Cup, they haven’t done it yet. Just to see how passionate everyone is out here, obviously. I’m leaning towards them I guess, I would say."


Weber, Gorges, Hannan, McLean, Fiddler
As for Josh Gorges, he was as an RFA with MTL. His signing allowed MTL to avoid arbitration with him, but the one year deal ($2.5M) put Gorges just a year away from UFA status

Considering The shot blocking extraordinaire will certainly be in demand on July 1, 2012, I imagine MTL was likely looking to lock him up long-term. Yet, it seems as though Gorges resisted. Why the insistence on a short-term deal?

Do some of these former Kelowna Rockets alumni have some sort of pact between them to re-unite somewhere closer to home in the near future? Hmmm. (Aug 2, 2011 Edit: In the middle of negtiations with NSH, Weber even switched to Gorges agent, Jarrett Bousquet).

Josh Gorges & the Memorial Cup
Pictured above are Weber and Gorges along with older alums Scott HannanBrett McLean and Vern Fiddler. Lefty Gorges and righty Weber were the perfect teammates for those three season in Kelowna, much of that time as a pairing, including the Mem Cup run in 2003, followed up by actually winning the ultimate junior prize in 2004 (that's team captain Gorges with the cup to the right).

Much ado about nothing here? Perhaps. But if "The Kelowna Connection" theory holds true, we maybe seeing a splashy re-union on the west coast soon.

Are you catching my drift here Canucks fans? (Its also worth noting, Comeau played with Alex Edler in Kelowna for one season -- the latter was himself a Rocket in 2005-06. )




Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Chris Campoli: today a UFA, tomorrow a Canuck?

Chris Campoli
The Chicago Blackhawks walked away from the $2.5M contract awarded Chris Campoli by the arbitrator. Knowing the award would be higher than to his liking, and that he'd decline the option of accepting, Chicago GM, Stan Bowman signed UFA Sami Lepisto last week to a much smaller contract, more appropriate for a bottom pairing defenseman.

It would be ironic if Campoli is now targeted by Vancouver since it was his give-away in overtime of game 7 that led to Alex Burrows' series clinching goal vs Chicago in the first round. Nevertheless, it would make sense for GM Mike Gillis to bring in Campoli if the price is right. Somewhere around $2M or less would probably make it enticing, considering VAN currently has the perennial playoff scratch, Keith Ballard at $4.2M.

Keith Ballard
Like Ballard, Campoli is a left shooting, offensively oriented, average sized blueliner that can pot 5 to 10 goals and rack up 20 to 30 points a season. At  6' 200 lbs, Campoli isn't going to overwhelm anyone on the d-zone coverage, but his smooth skating, good shot and ability to lead or join the rush would do wonders for the bottom pairing in VAN, if the price is right.

As things stand, almost anything is better than a $4M bottom pairing d-man like Ballard, when precious cap dollars are needed up front to fill out the top six, which leads me to my next recommendation. With Campoli in the fold, Gillis may actually be able kill two birds with one stone, if he is able to convert Ballard into a top six forward by trading with an equally desperate team like the New York Islanders.


Blake Comeau

Blake Comeau & Manny Malhotra
The winger I'm fairly certain would be of interest is the 6'1" 205 lbs, Blake Comeau. He's quietly grown into the role of a top six forward, having surpassed the 20 goal scoring mark this past season. He would be a fine addition to the first or second line -- for instance as Ryan Kesler's right winger.

Comeau himself is an RFA this off-season and is likely looking for a deal in the $2M range. If you add his ~$2M plus Campoli's ~$2M, that equals Ballard's current cap hit.

Now there is little doubt that despite his recent ups and downs, Ballard is a better defenseman than Campoli. He also has a resume with a track record for top four minutes (well over 20 minutes a game before arriving in Vancouver where he averaged just under 16 minutes).  However, considering his cap hit and position on the VAN depth chart:

RW Comeau (~$2M) + LD Campoli (~$2M)   >   LD Ballard  ($4.2M)


July 28/11 Update:
NYI traded winger Trent Hunter for winger Brian Rolston. For NJ it was a cap saving move to the tune of $3M. For NYI, it means another 20 goal winger to the lineup. This could also impact NYI's decision to keep Blake Comeau, who is headed to arbitration if without a deal by Aug 4.

With Rolston in that lineup, one of NYI's current top nine forwards is not going to be with the team. That may simply mean Nino Niederreiter goes back to the WHL for another year. If that's the case though, Garth Snow will be short of the cap floor by ~$1M (using 23 players, projecting Comeau at $2.25M and RFA center Josh Bailey at $1.5M). Now if Bailey goes and Nino stays, the cap floor is reached even if the return in a Bailey trade is only draft picks.

However, the likely one to go is Comeau. He's the one with the leverage to demand more money than Snow wants to pay. Plus, I'd imagine NYI management feels Bailey (3 years younger than Comeau) has another step yet to take in terms of development, considering his pedigree.

NYI Point Blank chief, Chris Botta, is saying that a source has informed him that "another Hockey Move on the way...Rolston trade said to be prelude to a bigger deal...For what it’s worth, we were also told that we’re going to like this one." I would imagine this deal gets done some time before Monday's big referendum by the county on a new arena for NYI.

July 29/11 Update:
@angus_j Jeff Angus Twitter: As per @JawandaPuck, a Ballard/Comeau swap combined with a Chris Campoli signing makes a ton of sense. #Canucks

Jeff Angus, @DobberHockey: An interesting read from a few weeks ago - what if the Canucks traded Ballard for Blake Comeau, and signed Chris Campoli? Ballard never got a fair shake last season, but a fresh start may be in order. Speculation is fun, isn't it?!

Aug 3/11 Update:
With San Jose signing recent UFA defenseman Colin White, the Sharks may be looking at getting in on the Comeau sweepstakes. They can now peddle one of their existing top five defensemen to land the top nine winger from NYI. It's the same scenario I laid out for the Canucks if they sign Campoli and trade Ballard. SJS may be looking to deal blueliner Douglas MurrayMarc-Edourd Vlasic or Jason Demers to NYI. This would fall in line with my previous speculations that the Dangerous Sharks still have More Moves to Make.


Aug 23/11 Update: 
@SunGarrioch Bruce Garrioch TwitterChris Campoli continues to have interest from 5 teams. He will be back at work before camp.

With that short tweet, the veteran Ottawa Sun sports columnist provided more insight on the Chris Campoli situation than all of the quotes the Toronto Star gathered this week from Campoli himself:
“I felt I had a good season (in Chicago). There were a lot of positives to take out of it...I’m a confident guy. I’m confident in my ability as a player and what I’ve accomplished in my career. But being unsigned is part of the business of being a professional hockey player. At the end of the day, as a player, you have to remember that this is a business...All you can do is control how you prepare to be a professional player...Part of being a professional is dealing with the ups and downs. Things make you stronger on and off the ice...You gain certain experiences, good or bad, and you learn from them...I’m pretty fortunate (to be a hockey player)...I’m preparing and training just as hard as I always do as if I already have a contract...The bottom line is you have to be ready to play and be in great shape to play...I have to be patient and keep working hard so wherever I end up I’ll make a good first impression...I’m 27 -- there is still a lot of time left in me as a player...I’ll be ready when the next opportunity knocks for me.”

The delay could be the result of Campoli holding out for the best deal possible, or it could be because the interested GM(s) need more time to work out a win-win deal that would have them send a current defensman to another team in exchange for help at another position, thus allowing Campoli to fill the opening on the blueline.

Shaone Morrisonn & Chris Neil
Teams that could use a blueliner immediately without necessarily having to move a body include Minnesota, and Florida, and ironically, two teams Campoli has already played for, Ottawa and the New York Islanders. However, all of those look to be non-playoff teams this season -- Campoli maybe willing to wait it out until an opening becomes available with a playoff caliber team.

Playoff teams that maybe willing to shift assets in order to sign Campoli include Vancouver and Buffalo. The Sabres would need to first trade Shaone Morrisonn and convert one of Brad Boyes or Joechen Hecht into a more reasonably paid third liner via trade. Morrisonn was a disappointment for them last season, but still has a sizable amount ($2.075M) owed to him on the remaining year of his contract. His spot would be better utilized by Campoli.

The teams that may have interest in Morrisonn could be the same four lottery teams mentioned previously (MIN, FLA, OTT & NYI), especially if they are able to shed a smaller undesirable salary in exchange.

I would still advocate that the Canucks move Keith Ballard to NYI for Blake Comeau and replace the former with the much cheaper Campoli. The exception would be if GM Mike Gillis is planning on using Ballard in a package to lure a bigger fish to Vancouver, such as Comeau's former Kelowna teammate, Shea Weber.


Update 9/23/11:
The Rangers may have been one of those original five teams inquired about Campoli that Garrioch mentioned in Aug, but as the per the agent, Rich Evans, NYR isn't one of the teams to have done so recently:
The Rangers inquired about Chris Campoli within days after the Blackhawks walked away from the 27-year-old defenseman’s $2.5 million salary arbitration award this summer, but the free-agent’s agent, Rich Evans, told The Post that they have not checked in recently on Campoli even with growing doubt regarding Marc Staal’s status and availability for the start of the season. "We had conversations earlier on, so they certainly know he’s out there," Evans said of the Rangers by phone Friday morning. "We’ve had a few teams call recently and we’ve gotten some knocks on the door, but not from the Rangers."




Blake Comeau


Chris Campoli


Previous Post: Rangers Option: Acquiring Another Impact Player
Next Post: Shea Weber Conspiracy Alert: The Kelowna Connection  







Friday, July 15, 2011

Rangers Option: Acquiring Another Impact Player

With Brian Boyle now re-signed for an average of $1.7M per for the next three years, the Ranger can now focus on re-upping their big two remaining RFAs, Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan. Boyle got a nice reward for a break out season that saw him post his first double digit goals total in the NHL, with 21.

The former first round draft pick (2003) of the Los Angeles Kings, Boyle gained the trust of Ranger coach John Tortorella, seeing his ice time nearly double from year over year, from 8:25 to 15:44  minutes. Also, The 6'7" giant took more draws than anyone else on the Rangers this past season. Back to Dubinsky and Callahan, I'm estimating those two to come in at around $3.5M per season each, on multi-year deals just like Boyle.

With those signings, GM Glen Sather may be done with his roster make over up front. Rumors exist of Wojtek Wolski being bought out as the Rangers would be able to take advantage of the small cap hit that would result since he falls into the one third buyout category because of his age.

The thought of Marian Gaborik being healthy for a full season, however, being somewhat of a precarious notion, I expect Wolski to remain on the Rangers considering his inclusion doesn't handicap Sather from a cap perspective. That is, unless he Sather is considering a very large acquisition.


That being said, lets now take a closer look at the roster to see what we have currently. Up front the team looks more solid than it has in decades perhaps. A true dynamic duo may be born this October. The left-handed  Brad Richards will almost certainly be paired with the right-handed Gaborik.

The trigger man, in this case Gaborik, will feel quite visible to his premier setup man, Richards, since the latter will not have to be on the back hand when looking for Gaborik coming down the right side on an offensive rush. Instead, Richards will be mostly be on the forehand when looking for his soon to be favorite right winger. Certainly Louis Eriksson in Dallas benefited from playing on Richards' right wing for around 75% of the time while even strength.

The ultra skilled Gaborik hasn't played with a center like Richards since his days in Minnesota where he mostly lined up with Mikko Koivu his final season there and Pavol Demitra before that. I expect Gabby to play 60 games or more. If he can get into the 70+ GP area, his numbers should balloon back up to the 80 point (40+40).

Who plays on the left wing on that line? I think we could see a steady rotation of players including left handers Dubinsky, Ruslan Fedotenko, Artem Anisimov, and possibly even right handed Derek Stepan, among others. Considering none will likely be able to stay hot enough consistently enough, I expect to see some even Sean Avery and Wolski on the big line -- if they're still on the roster.

Dubinsky has the chance of sticking longest considering he'll be expected to log big minutes. His value on the face-off (52.4% with the total number of faceoffs taken only second to Boyle) can not be over looked however. Therefore, he'll likely also be deployed as a center (or winger) on the second line. His traditional linemates last year were afterall Callahan and Anisimov.

With the available cap space, I expect Sather to add another veteran defenseman, and then bank cap any leftover space to add another impact addition at the trade deadline. There have been reports that blueliner Sami Lepisto could be a depth signing. Now he's a lefty, where as a righty may be more suitable for Tim Erixon or Michael Del Zotto -- both left handed shots.

Another possibility is Sather swapping one of the extra forwards for a blueliner. Or taken to the next level, trade one of the abundant top nine centers  (specifically youthful Anisimov or Stepan) for a top six defenseman or a top six left winger. And if either is packaged with Wolski, Sather may be able to get both a blueliner  and winger in the same deal.

Thinking Ales Hemsky ... perhaps Hemsky + Theo Peckham for Anisimov + Wolski (with some draft picks sprinkled in on either side to make it completely fair).




The starting lineup will be one in semi-constant flux, until Sather and Torts find the permanent solution to the left wing spot on the top line. Not to mention, injuries and slumps will cause considerable havoc. Thus, I would consider the projected lineup below as a simple guide to a very fluid roster.

New York Rangers
Left WingCap HitTOICenterCap HitTOIRight WingCap HitTOI
Wojtek Wolski$3.800m14:34Brad Richards$6.666m21:43Marian Gaborik$7.500m 18:05
Brandon Dubinsky$4.200m20:13Derek Stepan$0.875m16:26Ryan Callahan$4.275m19:54
Ruslan Fedotenko$1.400m14:59Artem Anisimov$1.875m16:12Mats Z.Aasen$1.750m 14:10
Michael Rupp$1.500m10:03Brian Boyle$1.700m15:44Brandon Prust$0.800m 13:48
Sean Avery$1.937m11:14Erik Christensen$0.925m 12:45
Left DefenseCap HitTOIRight DefenseCap HitTOIGoalieCap HitGP
Marc Staal$3.975m25:44Daniel Girardi$3.325m 24:34Henrik Lundqvist$6.875m68
Ryan McDonagh$1.300m18:44Mike Sauer$1.250m 17:31Martin Biron$0.875m 17
Tim Erixon$1.750mrookMichael Del Zotto$1.087m 19:29
Steve Eminger$0.800m15:51
Buy Outs$3.716mChris Drury



Cap Payroll$64.156mBonuses: $2.338m
Salary Cap$64.300m
Cap Space$0.144mRoster Size: 22 players
Certain data courtesy Capgeek.com and NHL.com | * Estimates

UPDATES


July, 20/11:
$527,000 in bonus overages carrying over from last season, reducing the cap space projection above to <$1m.

July, 21/11:
Dubinsky re-signed today for 4Y x $4.2M (3.75M, 3.75M, 4.65M, 4.65M) avoiding arbitration just hours away.

Next up Callahan, whose agent, Steve Bartlett was quoted today as saying, "Any signing of a player of similar age and accomplishments affects players who share restricted free agency...my goal is always to negotiate a fair deal with the team...I will continue to do so in the hope of avoiding arbitration."

July, 25/11:
Steve Eminger, who was a UFA, re-signed today for 1Y x $800K. He is the right handed shooting blueliner that will be paired with one of MDZ or Erixon as a bottom pairing. If all three make the team, then one of the one-way contracts among the forwards will likely go (I'd guess Christensen).

July 27/11:
@RealKyper Nick Kypreos Twitter: #NHL news. Hearing #Rangers Ryan Callahan will not being going to an arb hearing as he's settled on signing a new 3 year deal...believed to be in the ball park of 13M.

@RealKyper Nick Kypreos Twitter: #NHL news. Final $ are in for #Rangers Ryan Callahan new 3 year deal. 4.275 is aav. Total is 12.825M.

@JawandaPuck JawandaPuck Twitter: Ryan Callahan signs 3Y x $4.275M; leaves #NYR with ~$700K in cap space with MDZ in minors; will make trade for 2 reasons

Sept 19/11:
"Tortorella admitted today that the Rangers are monitoring the market for defensemen, but said that they were doing so even before Staal (concussion) had to be taken out of training camp."

By my count, there isn't much space left for a pricey d-man. However, moving the somewhat redundant Erik Christensen would create a more flexibility to add to the NYR existing roster.